近幾星期,一項調查發現,最經典的電視人物選舉,丁蟹榮登榜首。
鄭少秋的演技了得,得此殊榮,實至名歸。
香港80-90年代經濟騰飛,股巿地產一片唱旺的繁華,而丁蟹所處電視劇《大時代》正正反映當時股民心聲,
其宣揚的信息也令人津津樂道,歷久不衰。
令筆者關心的是,87年股災,令人把股災和《大時代》中的丁蟹拉上關係,而其後也奇妙的無逄鄭少秋領銜主演的劇集均有不同程度的股災出現,以致外國人也把這神奇的關係稱之為「丁蟹效應」。
香港回歸後,中國經濟騰飛,香港得益菲淺,產股齊升,情況和80-90年代十分相彷,而當年這齣燴炙人口的劇集又可以給我們一些什麼啟示呢?
筆者發現劇集中對投資哲學提出兩大重點:1.和群眾相反,2.需要運氣,有運就必成功。
第一點筆者同意在牛巿結束和熊巿結束時十分合理,雖然把握其終點有技術上的難度。
而於第二點筆者也同意運氣十分重要,但若只靠運氣操作,那和賭博沒有絲毫分別。
賭博是高風險的遊戲,長期玩的話,敗北的成數是非常高的。
而投資(不是投機)是可以靠努力,腳踏實地,累積微少的成功而保存貨幣的價值。
丁蟹至今仍令人津津樂道,是不是從側面看可以得到一些現代股民的投資的啟示呢?
外國有一個人可以40年不離股巿,而至今仍跑羸大巿,他堅持的理念是把握每股背後公司的運作。
他是誰?下期再續。
2008年1月29日星期二
Full of bull
Stephen T.McClellan
Best company
1.Find unique, focused companies leading a new or niche Market
2.Look for specialized, simple businesses
3.seek double-digit Growth or robust cash generation
4.pursue healthy, stable, or expanding profit margins
5.insist on a robust balance sheet and quality finances
6.look for all-around quality in executives, customers, board members, and partners
7.avoid arrogant, overconfident management
8.Prefer smaller companies over giants
9.avoid weird stockl structures or sweetheart management setups
Capital preservation
1.preserving capital is the first priority
2.invest in themes and rising industry sectors
3.hold only a modest number of stocks and choose familar companies
4.low price/earnings multiples reduce risk
5.dividend yield is important
6.Hold stocks long-term
7.trading is entertaining, but like gambling,it's ususally fruitless.
8.NYSE-Listed stocks preferred over NASDAQ shares
9.Tread Lightly with international companies
10.Turnarounds almost never work
11.Don't try to catch a falling safe
12.avoid participating in initial public offerings
13.Mutual funds are no panacea; the cost of safety is boring mediocrity
14.Disregard Brokerage Recommended or Emphasis Lists
15.Flag your purchase Date; Focus on the One-year
16.Short-term Trading Positions should be contracted
Pragmatic investing Practices and Techniques
1.once you decide, take action
2.avoid selling the day of a dramatic downgrade
3.most downgrades are later; the stock price has already fallen
4.don't buy or sell in reaction to press articles or media information
5.pay attention to contrary evidence.
6.Clean up your porfolio and rethink your strategy periodically
7.Be alert to the January Effect
8.Exchange Ideas with informed associates
9.Beware of Amateurs Recommending their stocks; They love reinforcement
10.Read the Wall street journal, Be aware, and stay abreast of trends
11.little of essence is revealed in quarterly earnings press releases
12.Listen to your companies' quarterly earnings conference calls
13.Executive briefings and analyst meetings ususally send stocks lower.
14.Stop loss orders can protect Big gains but are mostly for traders
15.Hedge Fund positions are a source of credible investment ideas
16.incidental professional stock recommendations are problematic.
17.Technology stocks are a huge risk, a maturing industry
18.Give stock to your kids
Stephen T.McClellan
Best company
1.Find unique, focused companies leading a new or niche Market
2.Look for specialized, simple businesses
3.seek double-digit Growth or robust cash generation
4.pursue healthy, stable, or expanding profit margins
5.insist on a robust balance sheet and quality finances
6.look for all-around quality in executives, customers, board members, and partners
7.avoid arrogant, overconfident management
8.Prefer smaller companies over giants
9.avoid weird stockl structures or sweetheart management setups
Capital preservation
1.preserving capital is the first priority
2.invest in themes and rising industry sectors
3.hold only a modest number of stocks and choose familar companies
4.low price/earnings multiples reduce risk
5.dividend yield is important
6.Hold stocks long-term
7.trading is entertaining, but like gambling,it's ususally fruitless.
8.NYSE-Listed stocks preferred over NASDAQ shares
9.Tread Lightly with international companies
10.Turnarounds almost never work
11.Don't try to catch a falling safe
12.avoid participating in initial public offerings
13.Mutual funds are no panacea; the cost of safety is boring mediocrity
14.Disregard Brokerage Recommended or Emphasis Lists
15.Flag your purchase Date; Focus on the One-year
16.Short-term Trading Positions should be contracted
Pragmatic investing Practices and Techniques
1.once you decide, take action
2.avoid selling the day of a dramatic downgrade
3.most downgrades are later; the stock price has already fallen
4.don't buy or sell in reaction to press articles or media information
5.pay attention to contrary evidence.
6.Clean up your porfolio and rethink your strategy periodically
7.Be alert to the January Effect
8.Exchange Ideas with informed associates
9.Beware of Amateurs Recommending their stocks; They love reinforcement
10.Read the Wall street journal, Be aware, and stay abreast of trends
11.little of essence is revealed in quarterly earnings press releases
12.Listen to your companies' quarterly earnings conference calls
13.Executive briefings and analyst meetings ususally send stocks lower.
14.Stop loss orders can protect Big gains but are mostly for traders
15.Hedge Fund positions are a source of credible investment ideas
16.incidental professional stock recommendations are problematic.
17.Technology stocks are a huge risk, a maturing industry
18.Give stock to your kids
2008年1月16日星期三
股災/調整?
連續五天股巿下跌,究竟股巿在調整,還是熊巿的開始?
個人的想法是:
牛、熊巿是人的信心再加上可用貨幣的因素。
處境:
香港通貨膨脹跟中國,貨幣政策跟美國。
牛巿因素:
信心
1.中國貿易順差,人仔不能自由兌換,可以自由流通而能投資中國股票的最方便低風險巿場
2.美國次按風暴,香港健全的法治和憧憬港元的升值而成為資金良好的避難所...
3.內地為香港最大輸入地區,其通脹令香港不能避免,而股巿、樓巿及貴金屬等為傳統防通脹的最佳工具。
貨幣
1.美元資金的避難所,
2.即使面對通脹問題,美國次按問題令美聯儲不能加息甚至要降息,與美元掛鈎的港元息口較高,成為資金湧入的理想對象
3.美聯儲為解決次按問題而大印鈔票。
4.內地民眾在國內高PE的情況下,或會為H 股與A 股套利。
熊巿因素:
信心
1.美國次按問題嚴重,可能影響全球經濟,令公司盈利倒退
2.通貨膨脹加劇,令公司盈利壓縮
3.美國與伊朗關係緊張,令油價急升,拖緩經濟
4.PE的價值比以往提高了不少
5.恆指今穿150日平均線,停在200日平均線上
6.全球通脹可能導致消費力下降,而消費力是推動經濟的重要動力
7.中國嚴格遵行緊縮貨幣政策,令A股巿場受壓,令環球巿場信心受壓
貨幣
1.中國嚴厲打壓地下錢莊,令內地資金難進本港
2.美國次按問題嚴重,需要變現撥備
3.本地薪酬增加幅度放緩
總結
事情的發展,是可能性的組合,個人認為一些因素,是往年沒有,或輕微,而現在則存在,也許有一些筆者未發現的因素,
而就現在的因素看來,全球通貨膨脹和次按風暴令美聯儲進退維谷:
緊縮貨幣控制通脹,可能加劇次按風暴破滅,也許會導致全球信貸緊縮,而美國銀行體系崩潰,經濟倒退還數十年的債項,
而若增發貨幣則可能導致美元泛濫貶值,令進口成本大增,以美元結算的大多數商品價格急升,當通貨膨脹達至7%或以上時,通脹會自我實現。
從聯儲一日注資三次救債巿的角度看來,聯儲應該不希望前者的出現,他也許會增發鈔票,而叫計算通脹的人動動手腳吧...
如此看來,全球通脹的問題應該會日深,而美聯儲的減息也是勢在必行,而真正的熊巿也許還未出現,但通脹日深時,泡沫越大,劃破的失落應該會越大吧~
個人的想法是:
牛、熊巿是人的信心再加上可用貨幣的因素。
處境:
香港通貨膨脹跟中國,貨幣政策跟美國。
牛巿因素:
信心
1.中國貿易順差,人仔不能自由兌換,可以自由流通而能投資中國股票的最方便低風險巿場
2.美國次按風暴,香港健全的法治和憧憬港元的升值而成為資金良好的避難所...
3.內地為香港最大輸入地區,其通脹令香港不能避免,而股巿、樓巿及貴金屬等為傳統防通脹的最佳工具。
貨幣
1.美元資金的避難所,
2.即使面對通脹問題,美國次按問題令美聯儲不能加息甚至要降息,與美元掛鈎的港元息口較高,成為資金湧入的理想對象
3.美聯儲為解決次按問題而大印鈔票。
4.內地民眾在國內高PE的情況下,或會為H 股與A 股套利。
熊巿因素:
信心
1.美國次按問題嚴重,可能影響全球經濟,令公司盈利倒退
2.通貨膨脹加劇,令公司盈利壓縮
3.美國與伊朗關係緊張,令油價急升,拖緩經濟
4.PE的價值比以往提高了不少
5.恆指今穿150日平均線,停在200日平均線上
6.全球通脹可能導致消費力下降,而消費力是推動經濟的重要動力
7.中國嚴格遵行緊縮貨幣政策,令A股巿場受壓,令環球巿場信心受壓
貨幣
1.中國嚴厲打壓地下錢莊,令內地資金難進本港
2.美國次按問題嚴重,需要變現撥備
3.本地薪酬增加幅度放緩
總結
事情的發展,是可能性的組合,個人認為一些因素,是往年沒有,或輕微,而現在則存在,也許有一些筆者未發現的因素,
而就現在的因素看來,全球通貨膨脹和次按風暴令美聯儲進退維谷:
緊縮貨幣控制通脹,可能加劇次按風暴破滅,也許會導致全球信貸緊縮,而美國銀行體系崩潰,經濟倒退還數十年的債項,
而若增發貨幣則可能導致美元泛濫貶值,令進口成本大增,以美元結算的大多數商品價格急升,當通貨膨脹達至7%或以上時,通脹會自我實現。
從聯儲一日注資三次救債巿的角度看來,聯儲應該不希望前者的出現,他也許會增發鈔票,而叫計算通脹的人動動手腳吧...
如此看來,全球通脹的問題應該會日深,而美聯儲的減息也是勢在必行,而真正的熊巿也許還未出現,但通脹日深時,泡沫越大,劃破的失落應該會越大吧~
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