Recently, the "Emergency Economic Stabilization Act of 2008" was terminated, It may cause serious consequence.
The Strength of US economy was mainly due to the debt consumsion.They borrow the money from other countries and buy goods from other countries. For example, they borrowed money from Mid-East and bought oil from them.
This system only work if other countries believe US can repay the money with its tax, its power of industries and the power of nation. In the last 50 years, it work as US survive from World War I and World War II.At that time, other countries not only lent the money to US, but also invest on them.
But recently, the erosion of export power and the habit of over-consumsion make the hidden problem worse.The US government can only make the system smooth, otherwise a disaster is ahead.They rewrote the inflation formula, the GDP counting,... in order to make people thought their economy was still strong enough to invest/ to lend. The wise bankers even invented lots of derivatives to encourage people to invest.
They are very successful. Most companies, rich people gain more wealth, and even the poor people can benefit from the soaring estate market.
But most of the wealth are built on the financial asset, and this asset are mostly interlocking derivatives and bond to even limited number of financial asset like stocks.
The disaster is, when the price drop, the people wealth drop and the system rewind.
Base on this idea, the failure of "Emergency Economic Stabilization Act of 2008", can cause wave of bankrupt in companies and cause the wall street in a futher panic. But the most important things is, most citizen have their retirement plan funds invest on stock. The wave of bankrupt may terminate their career and pension. The consequence social problem may comparable to Great depression in 1929 US.
2008年9月30日星期二
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